The Silent Killer Behind your Shrinking Profits in 2025

By Ray K - March 02, 2025

2025 is shaping up to be another tough year. Costs are rising yet again.

Unlike labour cost, food costs are volatile. And unlike labour, food is your revenue. That’s why there’s an uncomfortable truth many operators overlook:

" The unpredictability of your food costs is the silent killer behind your shrinking profits"

Between May 2021 and May 2024, average food prices surged by 30.6%, according to the House of Commons.  Data on the wholesale market suggests the increase is even higher—with wilder fluctuations.

In this climate, keeping a tight grip on food costs isn’t just important—it’s the difference between survival and closure. 

But here's the challenge:

"How do you manage these constant ups and downs without a team of admins bigger chains have?"

The Single Question Thriving Restaurants Ask

Top independent restaurants like Murano, Fallow, pub groups like Publican Pubs, and caterers like Social Pantry are navigating these storms and staying profitable. Speaking with them, we’ve uncovered their secret. They ask themselves this one critical question, religiously:

Many operators believe their supplier contracts lock in prices. But can you be 100% sure that’s true for every order, on every invoice, every single day?

Vincenzo’s Costly Discovery

Take Vincenzo, owner of Cucina di Vincenzo in Liverpool. He thought his prices for key staples like Pancetta and Nduja were fixed. Being meticulous, he manually checked invoices daily, tracking every product price.

What he found shocked him:

In just the second month after fixing prices, Pancetta and Nduja fluctuated by 10% on four separate occasions.

That’s £100 lost per £1,000 spent—just on two products. Multiply that across hundreds of items, buried in tens of invoices each week, and the hidden costs add up fast.

"Always check every product prices on your invoices, no matter what."
- Vicenzo, award-winning restaurant operator 

The Game-Changer

But let’s be real—who has the time for this outside of big chains?

When Vincenzo opened a second site, tracking invoices himself became impossible. That’s when he found Jelly.

With Jelly scanning invoices daily and flagging price changes automatically, what once took an hour a day is now fully automated. His head chef at the new site secured multiple credit notes and 10% discounts on future orders within the first month.